Eric Boggs 
Dave Aranda's Last Stand
It’s do or die for Dave Aranda as the Baylor Bears aim to turn their fortunes around in 2024. With Big 12 Championship expectations already set, the pressure is on for Baylor to deliver. Just two years after winning the Big 12 Championship, there are increasing calls for head coach Dave Aranda to be replaced. In 2021, Baylor finished 12-2, winning a thrilling conference title match against Oklahoma State and defeating Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. However, the Bears have since struggled, going 9-16 over the past two seasons.
To salvage his position in Waco, Aranda has taken over the defensive playcalling duties. Known for his success as a defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and LSU, Aranda hopes to revitalize a defense that has struggled recently. But the road ahead is challenging. With Oklahoma and Texas leaving the Big 12 and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah joining, Baylor’s future position in the conference is uncertain.
Baylor’s football history before joining the Big 12 in 1996 was not impressive. The team went 14 straight years without a winning season and did not appear in a bowl game until its 15th year in the conference. However, in 2011, quarterback Robert Griffin III won the school’s first Heisman Trophy, and under coach Art Briles, Baylor achieved a 50-15 record from 2011-15, winning two league titles. Despite this success, the program faced a significant scandal under Briles, which derailed it until coach Matt Rhule turned things around, going from 1-11 in 2017 to 11-3 in 2019.
The regression from 12-2 to 6-7 in recent seasons has been surprising. Baylor’s young breakout quarterback Blake Shapen, who led the team to the Big 12 Championship game, has struggled with turnovers and injuries. In his absence, Sawyer Robertson’s performance has been lackluster, completing just 56% of his passes for two touchdowns and four interceptions. The team suffered a shocking loss in its season opener, giving up 42 points to Texas State at home, and managed only three wins against weaker opponents.
Baylor’s defense has plummeted from 16th nationally to 126th in points per drive allowed in two seasons. At the end of the season, Aranda made significant changes to his coaching staff. Despite the defense’s struggles, the offense was also ineffective, particularly in the running game. As a result, Baylor failed to score 20 points in five games and didn’t hold a single FBS opponent under 20 points. To address these issues, Baylor landed all-conference quarterback Dequan Finn from Toledo and wide receiver Ashtyn Hawkins from Texas State through the transfer portal. Former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital has been brought in to call the plays.
The offensive line, which started the most freshmen in the Big 12 last year, should improve with three returning starters and two new additions from the portal. Finn’s dual-threat abilities and Hawkins’ addition to the receiving corps bring hope for an improved offense. Running backs Dominic Richardson and Richard Reese aim to enhance a struggling rushing attack under Spavital’s guidance.
Aranda’s success as a defensive coordinator at LSU and Wisconsin brings optimism as he takes over playcalling duties. However, Baylor’s defense lacks the talent he had at his previous stops, making significant improvement challenging. Seven starters return on defense, including all four in the secondary, but last year’s poor performance leaves much to be desired.
The defensive line’s inability to generate pressure in 2023 further complicated the defense’s struggles. Although Baylor has talent on its roster, the team faces a tough schedule and must show significant improvement on both sides of the ball to meet expectations.
If Baylor fails to make a bowl game this season, Aranda’s position as head coach is likely in jeopardy. The Bears play a favorable home schedule, with opportunities for upsets that could lead to a 7-5 season. However, a head coach taking over playcalling duties often indicates a regime on the brink of change. Baylor needs a dramatic turnaround on both offense and defense to avoid another disappointing season.
Even with potential improvements, Baylor’s schedule is challenging, and the team must overcome significant hurdles to achieve success. The pressure is on for Dave Aranda to deliver results and secure his position as head coach.
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