Analyzing the College Football Playoff Picture: Which Big Ten Teams Still Have a Path?
JR Rhoades
Oregon still has a clear path to the CFP despite a difficult start to their season.
As the college football season heats up, the playoff race has begun to take shape. Key losses have already impacted several teams’ chances, while others remain in the hunt for a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP). Here, we break down the teams discussed in a recent debate and evaluate whether they have a realistic path to the playoffs.
Notre Dame: Because They Aren’t a Big Ten Team, They’re All But Eliminated
Notre Dame suffered a significant loss that has all but ended their hopes of making the playoffs this year. Despite their rich football history and brand power, the consensus is that even if they win the remainder of their games, it won’t be enough. Notre Dame would need significant help from other teams faltering, particularly from Florida State, which has underperformed early in the season. Unless Notre Dame manages to beat an undefeated USC and receives further help, their playoff dreams are slim at best.
Iowa: A Schedule that isn’t Tough Enough Stands in Their Way
Iowa is another team whose path to the playoffs looks increasingly difficult. The Hawkeyes’ schedule includes a matchup against Ohio State, and beyond that, their quality wins could be too limited to make a serious case for the CFP. Even if they pull off a massive upset against Ohio State, their overall strength of schedule and ability to close the season strongly remain big question marks.
Michigan: A Steep Climb Ahead
Michigan’s path to the playoffs is still open, but it’s a challenging one. With matchups against Oregon, USC, and Ohio State looming, Michigan will need to win most—if not all—of these games to secure a spot. They face the pressure of proving themselves after struggling in key moments, but the opportunity is there. Their best chance may lie in defeating an undefeated USC and navigating their tough Big Ten schedule without further setbacks.
Penn State: A Wildcard Pick
Despite a few struggles, Penn State is still considered a wildcard playoff contender. Their relatively favorable schedule, combined with a history of being close to the CFP conversation, gives them a shot. However, they will likely need to win most of their upcoming games, including potential season-defining matchups against Ohio State and USC. With a strong fan base and a history of performing well in big games, Penn State could find themselves in the playoff mix if they avoid key losses.
Oregon: Still in the Hunt
Oregon has struggled at times this season, but they aren’t out of the playoff race just yet. Their road to the playoffs, however, depends on turning around their performance quickly and winning critical games down the stretch. Like Michigan, they face tough opposition in the form of USC and Ohio State, but if they manage to win out, they could make a strong case for the CFP.
Rutgers: A Path, However Unlikely
Rutgers is perhaps the most surprising name mentioned in this playoff discussion, and while their path is slim, it exists. The Scarlet Knights would need a nearly perfect run to break into the playoff picture, including wins over powerhouses like Michigan and Ohio State. While it seems improbable, Rutgers’ potential path is a testament to the unpredictable nature of college football.
Nebraska: A Possible Path
Nebraska remains in the conversation for a playoff spot, but like Rutgers, their path is narrow. A strong finish to the season with key wins against ranked opponents could keep their playoff hopes alive. The Cornhuskers face a critical game against USC, and if they pull off the upset, their path becomes clearer. However, their fate will ultimately be determined by how they fare against the top-tier teams on their schedule.
Illinois: The Ultimate Dark Horse
Illinois may have the toughest path of all the teams discussed, but they aren’t entirely out of the race. Their non-conference win against a ranked team has kept them in contention, but they’ll need to upset Penn State and Michigan to make a real case for the playoffs. While it’s unlikely, Illinois’ path reflects the unpredictable nature of the college football season. If they win big games and the right teams falter, Illinois could find themselves in the playoff conversation.
Who Benefits the Most?
The team that benefits the most from the losses of Notre Dame, Iowa, and others could be whoever is sitting just outside the top four in the SEC. The SEC has been dominant in recent years, and with more spots potentially opening up due to Big Ten and ACC struggles, a fourth or fifth SEC team could slide into the playoffs. Alabama, though often a contender, faces a tough schedule that could leave them on the outside looking in if they finish with three losses. This could open the door for other SEC teams, or perhaps even a dark horse like Syracuse, to capitalize.
Conclusion: A Wide-Open Race
While Ohio State and USC seem to be the favorites to secure playoff spots, there’s still plenty of football to be played. Teams like Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon are in control of their destiny, while dark horses like Nebraska and Illinois need near-perfect seasons to stay alive in the race. As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see which teams rise to the occasion and which ones falter under the pressure. The path to the playoffs is still wide open for several teams, but only a few will ultimately seize the opportunity.
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