Nebraska’s Familiar Struggles Resurface in Loss to Illinois: Time to Reassess 2024 Expectations

Nebraska lost in all too familiar fashion against Illinois on Friday night, squandering a 4th quarter lead and making too many mistakes to overcome. We’re going to dispense with the usual categories and just dive right to the topline takeaways from the evening.

Time to Reassess Expectations for the 2024 Season. It’s frustrating enough that some of the same old issues from the last several years of Nebraska football reared their heads on Friday. Untimely penalties. Missed opportunities on offense. A missed field goal. As usual, the Huskers were not good enough to overcome their mistakes. But of much greater concern to me was the performance of the defense. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer had time to throw all night, receivers were running wide open, and perhaps most concerning, the Illini seemed to run the ball with ease, especially when they needed it most. If anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White. It’s not ridiculous to hope he can get the defense back on track; there’s plenty of season left. 

But after Friday, it’s hard not to wonder what the ceiling is for this team. It seems the hype train after Nebraska beat Colorado on the way to a 3-0 start took on a little too much steam. National media types like Kirk Herbstreit predicted the Huskers would be 7-0 going into the Ohio State game on October 26. Husker fans even had dreams of the playoff dancing in their heads. Last night showed that was premature. 

There’s still plenty to play for this season, and I’m in no way giving up on this team. But we need to remember that many observers were saying in the offseason that getting to a bowl game was the logical next step for this team; I remember thinking I’d be thrilled if they won seven or eight games. This is still a team learning how to win, and it was probably too much to expect there wouldn’t be any bumps in the road along the way. Let’s see how the Big Red gets up off the mat, starting with the game at Purdue next week. 

Little Things Add Up. On Nebraska’s first scoring drive, when the Huskers ultimately had to settle for a field goal, Rahmir Johnson caught what should have been a touchdown pass, but he had inadvertently backed out of bounds before securing the ball. Later in the 1st half, Isaiah Neyor had what looked like a touchdown pass ripped out of his arms for what ended up as an Illinois interception. On one Illinois drive, the Huskers looked to have stopped the Illini on 4th and 1. Illinois was awarded the 1st down without the officials even measuring (I was watching on TV, not at the game, but this looked like a big miss by the officials to me). Finally, with about three minutes left in a tie game, Dylan Raiola made one of his only mistakes of the night, missing an open Luke Lindenmeyer in the end zone. Some of these were miscues; some were simply bad luck. And this isn’t even the entire list of uncommon plays that impacted the game. 

As the Huskers move forward in the process of learning how to win consistently, their margin for error isn’t big enough to overcome plays like the above. If they are going to start winning close games, at some point they need to not only eliminate the self-inflicted errors we’ve become accustomed to seeing, but also to overcome the bad calls or bad luck plays that will inevitably happen in any football game. 

Special Teams. We’ve talked quite a bit on the Common Fan Podcast about how Coach Rhule doesn’t stand pat. For example, he pulled off what was essentially a major overhaul of the offense in the offseason, with an infusion of transfer portal talent, high school recruits, and even new coaches. So it’s hard to be too critical here. But it’s really frustrating to see Nebraska continue to struggle with makeable field goals. It was an issue last year and it doesn’t seem to be resolved this year. We know the Huskers will be in more close games, and their entire behind-the-scenes video series is titled “Chasing 3” because they had so many three point losses last year. It’s not clear if there’s a quick, in-season fix for the kicking game. 

Beyond that, Nebraska is currently 105th among all FBS teams in Special Teams Efficiency. The kickoff return game has looked leaky at times, and punter Brian Buschini had to make what looked to be a game-saving tackle on one punt against Illinois. It feels like these units should be better in year two of the Rhule era. The good news is, the coverage issues are fix-able. Will the Huskers show progress when it comes to kick and punt coverage? 

Offensive Line. Nebraska rushed for 102 sack-adjusted yards and Dylan Raiola was sacked five times against Illinois. That’s not nearly good enough for a team with a veteran offensive line that claims to want to play smash mouth football. With a talented Raiola and a slew of dynamic receivers this year, I do wonder how much offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield will remain committed to the run against good defenses. I’m not necessarily a “run the ball” guy; I’m all for using your playmakers and exploiting mismatches. But I’d love for Nebraska to have an offense that can line up when they need two yards, and everyone in the building knows they’re going to run it, and they run the ball anyway and still get the two yards. That’s a mindset; that’s an identity. For the I-don’t-know-how-many-eth season in a row, we don’t appear to have that.

Dylan Raiola: Still Really Good. Raiola completed 24 of his 35 passes (68.5%) for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Even his one interception was a beautifully thrown ball that was caught by Isaiah Neyor, who unfortunately then had it ripped out of his hands. Yes, Raiola missed an open receiver in the end zone late in the game, and that hurt. But would the Huskers even have been in position to win without him? He is so overwhelmingly impressive, it’s hard to overstate. The scoring drive he led right before halftime – complete with a perfect back shoulder throw to Jahmal Banks and a toe-dragging touchdown catch by Isaiah Neyor – was a thing of beauty. I find myself believing we’re going to convert on third and long, no matter how many yards are needed, because Raiola is at the helm. He consistently makes good reads and good throws, and doesn’t make mistakes very often. For those looking for reasons for optimism after the disappointing loss, he might be the biggest one. 

Banks, Neyor, and Fidone Shine. Wide receivers Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor plus tight end Thomas Fidone combined for 14 catches for 230 yards and two touchdowns. All made big catches at key moments. Banks and Neyor continue to live up to the offseason hype they generated as big time transfer portal additions, and it’s been awesome to see Fidone getting more looks the last couple weeks. When the Husker offense is cooking, it’s usually because one or more of these guys is making big plays. When you combine these impactful veterans with younger playmakers like Jacorey Barney, Jaylen Lloyd, and Janiron Bonner, it’s exciting to see how many weapons are at Raiola’s disposal. With more questions than expected on defense after Friday night, the offense may need to win some games for the Big Red this season. 

FINAL THOUGHT

Defense is the one thing Rhule’s team has done consistently well since he came to Nebraska. The more I think about Friday’s game, the more jarring it is that Illinois’ offense had so much success. I expect the senior-led unit to bounce back against Purdue, but many stiff tests await. For now, how good this defense really is remains an open question–perhaps THE defining question of the season. 

As always, GBR for LIFE.

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T.J. Birkel

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