Eric Boggs 
Marcus Freeman
Despite Notre Dame’s shocking 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois this past weekend, the Fighting Irish still have a realistic shot at making the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. While the upset certainly stings, there are multiple reasons to remain optimistic about Notre Dame’s chances to bounce back and secure a spot in the postseason.
Early Losses Aren’t Fatal
One of the most important factors to consider is that Notre Dame’s loss occurred early in the season. Historically, the College Football Playoff selection committee has shown a willingness to overlook early-season losses, provided a team can string together an impressive run of victories afterward. Last season is a perfect example: Alabama lost a major nonconference game to Texas in September but went on to win the SEC Championship, ultimately securing a playoff spot. If Notre Dame can do something similar by rattling off 10 straight wins, there’s every reason to believe the committee will give them serious consideration.
The expansion to a 12-team playoff format in 2024 further boosts Notre Dame’s chances. Unlike previous years, where only four spots were available, there’s now a wider berth, which allows for more flexibility. If Notre Dame can climb back into the top 12, a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois won’t be the defining factor of their season.
Notre Dame’s National Brand Still Carries Weight
The Fighting Irish’s brand and visibility in the world of college football play to their advantage. Despite losing to an unranked opponent, Notre Dame only fell to No. 18 in the latest AP Top 25 rankings. That’s crucial, because it shows that even with this setback, the Irish are still within striking distance of the top 12 playoff spots. A dominant run through the rest of their schedule could easily boost them back into the top 10, especially with some marquee matchups on the horizon.
Notre Dame’s independent status means they don’t have the luxury of a conference championship game to strengthen their playoff résumé. However, they’ve always been judged differently due to the strength of their national brand. As long as the Irish take care of business and win the games they’re supposed to, their name alone will keep them in the playoff conversation.
Northern Illinois Could Strengthen Notre Dame’s Résumé
Another potential silver lining in this loss is that Northern Illinois might not be a pushover. The Huskies are ranked No. 25 in the most recent AP Poll, and if they continue to climb the rankings, this loss could be viewed in a different light. Northern Illinois has a strong chance to win the Mid-American Conference (MAC), and if they can beat quality teams like NC State in the coming weeks, their success could retroactively improve Notre Dame’s résumé.
If Northern Illinois captures the MAC Championship, what initially appeared to be a catastrophic loss for the Irish could instead be reframed as a loss to a solid, ranked opponent. While it’s not the ideal situation, it would take some of the sting out of the defeat and make it easier for the playoff committee to justify keeping Notre Dame in the mix.
Key Opportunities Ahead
Notre Dame’s remaining schedule still presents multiple opportunities to impress the committee and improve their playoff standing. One of the biggest advantages Notre Dame has is that they’ll face two top-25 opponents later this season: No. 19 Louisville and No. 11 USC. These matchups provide the Irish with a chance to rack up quality wins against ranked teams, something that will be critical to their playoff hopes.
Beating a highly-ranked USC team on November 30 could be the exclamation point on Notre Dame’s season. USC is one of the top teams in the country, and a win over the Trojans would give the Irish a massive boost in the eyes of the playoff committee. Additionally, a road game against Louisville on September 28 is another opportunity to gain a ranked win and boost their résumé.
The rest of the schedule includes matchups against respectable programs like Georgia Tech, Army, and Florida State, which—while not powerhouses—still give the Irish chances to pad their win total. Notre Dame should be favored in the majority of their games leading up to the showdown against USC, meaning a 10-1 record heading into the season finale is entirely possible.
Quarterback Play Needs to Improve
Of course, none of this is possible if Notre Dame doesn’t improve its offensive play—especially at quarterback. Riley Leonard’s struggles have been a glaring issue through the first two weeks of the season. Against Northern Illinois, he completed just 20 of 32 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns, a performance that wasn’t enough to spark the offense. Even in the season-opening win against Texas A&M, Leonard wasn’t sharp, completing only 18 of 30 passes for 158 yards.
The Irish need Leonard to step up if they’re going to run the table. His passing game is critical to their success, and while he has shown flashes of talent, consistency is key. With the weapons Notre Dame has on offense, including a strong running game and solid receivers, Leonard has the potential to improve. If he can find his rhythm and lead the Irish to some convincing wins over ranked opponents, Notre Dame’s playoff résumé will be that much stronger.
A Favorable Playoff Format
The move to a 12-team playoff format couldn’t have come at a better time for Notre Dame. In previous years, an early loss like this might have been fatal to their playoff hopes, but with 12 spots available, the Irish still have a realistic chance to make it. Even with their independent status and no conference title game, Notre Dame only needs to break into the top 12, which is far more attainable than finishing in the top four.
Additionally, Notre Dame’s history and tradition in college football mean the selection committee will always give them the benefit of the doubt if they’re in the conversation. As long as the Irish take care of business and win the games they’re supposed to, they’ll be in a good position when the playoff rankings are finalized.
Conclusion: All Hope is Not Lost
While the loss to Northern Illinois was a significant blow to Notre Dame’s season, it’s far from a death sentence. The Irish have plenty of opportunities to bounce back, with key matchups against ranked opponents, a schedule that allows for a strong finish, and the advantage of the new 12-team playoff format.
If Notre Dame can improve their quarterback play and regain momentum, they’ll still be in a prime position to make a playoff push. The road ahead is challenging, but the path to the College Football Playoff is still wide open for the Fighting Irish. With resilience and a few big wins, Marcus Freeman’s squad can turn this season around and earn a spot in the first-ever expanded playoff.
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