Eric Boggs 
Troy hosts Texas State for a Thursday night Sunbelt showdown.
The Texas State Bobcats travel to Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans in a pivotal Thursday night matchup. Both teams are in desperate need of a win, but for different reasons. Texas State, led by quarterback Jordan McCloud, has struggled to close out games after fast starts, dropping two winnable contests against Arizona State and Sam Houston State. Meanwhile, Troy, under first-year head coach Gerad Parker, is trying to avoid complete freefall with a banged-up quarterback room and a 1-4 record.
Betting Preview
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas State is a 14-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 57.5 points. The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM) has a slightly narrower view, favoring Texas State by just 5.5 points with a 65.1% chance of winning. Both metrics highlight Texas State’s edge, but Troy’s ability to keep games close could make this matchup more competitive than the spread suggests.
Why Texas State Can Win
Texas State has shown flashes of being a dark-horse team this season. McCloud has been productive, throwing for over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s also contributed to the ground game, helping the Bobcats’ rushing attack, which has 631 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, Texas State is aggressive, with 15 sacks in four games, led by standout pass rushers Ben Bell and Kalil Alexander, both graded over 90 by Pro Football Focus.
Despite back-to-back losses, Texas State remains the more complete team. The challenge for the Bobcats will be sustaining their early-game momentum. They’ve averaged over 28 points in the first half but just 10.25 points in the second half. If Texas State can keep the foot on the gas, they should have enough firepower to end their losing streak to Troy, which includes last year’s 31-13 defeat.
Why Troy Can Win
Troy’s season hasn’t gone as planned, but the Trojans showed some life in their game against UL-Monroe, holding them to just 257 yards. Quarterback Tucker Kilcrease helped spark the run game in that contest, as Troy averaged over 5.5 yards per carry. If Kilcrease gets the start again with a full week of preparation, the offense might look more balanced.
The biggest concern for Troy is their inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The defense has had good moments, but the offense hasn’t been able to capitalize when it matters most. Still, the Trojans are capable of keeping games close, which should worry Texas State, given their second-half struggles.
Prediction
Neither team enters Thursday with positive momentum, but Texas State’s firepower, especially early in games, gives them the edge. If the Bobcats can maintain their first-half dominance and avoid letting Troy hang around late, they should come away with a win. However, if Troy can stay within striking distance by the third quarter, their ability to grind out tough games could make this a tight contest.
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