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Three Games That Will Define Virginia's 2024 Season
By Jay Ballard from the Cavalier Connection
The University of Virginia Football team is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 campaign that ended with a record of 3-9 (2-6 in the ACC). With pressure beginning to mount on Coach Tony Elliot to produce a winner, each game will present an opportunity for the Cavaliers to display the growth that is being talked about around the program this spring. Today, we examine the three swing games that could ultimately determine whether 2024 will be looked at as successful or not.
ONE: Virginia at Wake Forest (9/7)
I know, I know, Wake Forest is probably not a game you expected to see on this list. Let me explain. Both teams should come in feeling good about themselves with wins over FCS opponents Richmond (UVa) and North Carolina A&T (Wake Forest). Both teams come into this season with Vegas over/under win totals of 4.5. Wake Forest is coming off of a 4-8 campaign, with losses in eight of their final nine games. Gone are the top two Quarterbacks from last year’s team, but in is 24 year old former Louisiana Tech Quarterback Hank Bachmeier. While he has plenty of game experience, he’ll be working with an offense that went from a top-five scoring offense in 2021, all the way to 115th in 2023.
A win in this game should represent a 2-0 start to the season and build momentum for the following week’s home game against Maryland. A loss here, and it would be reasonable to assume that the rest of the 2024 will look a lot like the majority of 2023. I expect the former to happen, and for the Hoos campaign to be off and running!
WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTION: Virginia 30 Wake Forest 20
TWO: North Carolina at Virginia (10/26)
Nicknamed “The South’s Oldest Rivalry”, for many fans, UNC represents Virginia’s true top rival. However, that’s not the reason this game makes the list. Virginia will be coming off a road game at Clemson. That game will represent Coach Tony Elliot’s first trip back to Clemson since taking over at Virginia. While Clemson is not the same program it was in the Watson and Lawrence eras, the talent gap from Clemson to UVa is massive. Virginia will be a large underdog in that game, and the most likely outcome is an ugly Virginia loss. After playing Carolina at home, Virginia will head to Pitt and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. That is to say, UNC is the only home game from October 12th-November 23rd and represents a near must win situation.
If Virginia is able to play Clemson competitively and exit healthy, this game feels winnable. Drake Maye is gone, and recently, UVa has had the Tarheels number on the gridiron (winning five of the last seven). Even last year, as greater than a three touchdown underdog, Virginia managed to upset UNC in Chapel Hill. While Carolina will enter this game with more talent on paper, this game will likely come down to a handful of plays that will determine the outcome.
WAY TOO EARLY PREDCTION: Virginia 34 North Carolina 31
THREE: Virginia at Virginia Tech (11/30)
You can throw out the records when these two teams step on the field, but not because it’s a rivalry game, but because records haven’t mattered for the better part of the last quarter century. To put it nicely, Virginia Tech has owned Virginia in football. Virginia’s last win at Virginia Tech came in November of 1998, with their only wins in the series since then coming in 2003 and 2019. Last year, Virginia Tech won at Virginia 55-17. Chances are, if you’re reading this article, you already knew all that. Those results are exactly why this game makes the list.
I’d project Virginia enters this game with a win total of between four and six games. If the number is below six, this game becomes even more important for the program. A win at Virginia Tech, regardless of the season win total would represent progress and momentum into the offseason. It would also quiet, what could be a growing louder part of the fan base that doesn’t believe Coach Elliot is the right man to lead the program.
Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry seems to have steadied the ship in Blacksburg, finishing last season 7-6, with a win in the Military Bowl. This followed a disastrous first season that finished 3-8. That’s bad news for those in Charlottesville who were enjoying the Justin Fuente era, and the downtrend of the VT program. While I don’t believe the talent gap is nearly as great as the results you have seen on the field, the results are no fluke. Until Virginia can string together a few wins against team Blacksburg, and make it a true rivalry again, I can’t see this game going much differently.
WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 44 Virginia 20
While these games only represent twenty-five percent of the season, they feel far more impactful. Winning at Wake Forest should allow Virginia to continue a hot start and get a valuable conference road win. The UNC game represents Virginia’s only chance to earn a home win for over a month. A win in that game should provide a much needed lift towards gaining bowl eligibility. Closing the season at Virginia Tech is always difficult, but a win in that game could completely change the narrative for the season and program trajectory. Let’s hope my way too early prediction for that game is my only miss! GO HOOS!
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