Big Ten Football Coaches Hot Seat Power Rankings Entering 2024 -

By JR Rhoades from The Big Ten Huddle

The Big Ten is filled with eighteen teams and eighteen coaches who are all trying to keep their jobs. Last year, we saw six new coaches get hired, and we have five coaches entering their second or third year. With so many new faces, many are safe with their jobs for now, but it’s interesting how some of those you might find near the top of a coach rankings in the Big Ten might also be near the top of the hot seat rankings in the Big Ten. Let’s look at the safest coaches to the most at risk entering the 2024 college football season in four categories.

WON’T LOSE THEIR JOB THIS YEAR

18. Dan Lanning, Oregon—All is well in Eugene for Dan Lanning, who is experiencing tremendous support from fans, the administration, and NIL. Although Dan Lanning did lose to Washington twice last year and has yet to win the conference, he has improved each year he has been at Oregon and has picked up right where Mario Cristobal left off. Maybe it’s just the offseason Kool-Aid, but Dan Lanning isn’t going anywhere soon.

17. David Braun, Northwestern—Northwestern had Pat Fitzgerald fired in the middle of their offseason, and David Braun seemed to come into an impossible situation. In 2023, people questioned if Northwestern would win two or even three games. Well, they won 8. David Braun has cemented himself as the Northwestern head coach for the foreseeable future. Even if he were to go 0-12 this year, Northwestern would bring him back.

16. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa—Fans might want to see Kirk Ferentz lower on these rankings, but the truth is, Kirk Ferentz has earned his right to retire on his terms to the administration. If things go south, they might encourage him to retire, but I can’t see Kirk getting fired anytime soon.

15. Jedd Fisch, Washington—Washington fans are feeling pretty satisfied. After defeating Oregon twice last year and making it to the national championship, fans and the administration will give Jedd Fisch time. They also lost a ton of talent to the NFL draft and the transfer portal, so even if this year doesn’t go well, Fisch will have an excuse and continue to be given support.

14. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State—Spartan fans are overjoyed with Jonathan Smith after the Mel Tucker debacle. To bring in an experienced and reliable head coach, coming with a talented young quarterback in Aidan Chiles, things are feeling good in East Lansing. Not only this, but Michigan State fans and the administration are going to give Smith time, knowing how difficult it will be to flip this team from where it was last year.

13. Curt Cignetti, Indiana—Similar to Jonathan Smith, it was time for Tom Allen to go. He didn’t leave the same way Mel Tucker did, but fans and the administration at Indiana will understand that it was a slow start. It also helps that Cignetti had a good offseason and is getting the 5-star prospect, Julian Lewis, on campus for multiple visits. There is life in the Hoosier program right now that won’t die out, even if they have a disappointing season.

12. PJ Fleck, Minnesota—This might be the biggest shock of the rankings at first, but after looking at Fleck’s buyout, Minnesota would need to pay him $22 million this year or $18 million next year. Quite frankly, Minnesota cannot afford to fire him. Maybe if Fleck goes 0-12, someone will write that check, but PJ Fleck has a favorable contract, and we will see him in Minnesota in the foreseeable future unless he decides to move on.

11. Greg Schiano, Rutgers—It is unbelievable that the best coach in Rutgers football history is on this list, almost in the middle, but that is how secure some of these Big Ten jobs are. Greg Schiano is entering the year with returning talent and winning another bowl game for a team that has been one of the worst in the conference. Greg Schiano isn’t going anywhere, but he is entering the year with expectations, and he might lose his goodwill if he doesn’t get close to or make a bowl game.

NEEDS TO AVOID A DISASTER

10. Sherrone Moore, Michigan—This year would have to be an absolute disaster for Sherrone Moore to be fired. I can’t see it happening, but it is more likely than others. Michigan fans and the administration are thrilled about coming off their national championship, and Sherrone Moore was a huge part of that. A lousy season won’t lose Moore his job, but their win total sits at 9.5, and if Michigan somehow only wins seven games or less, 2025 will have a lot more pressure than 2024.

9. Matt Rhule, Nebraska—Similar to Sherrone Moore, Matt Rhule will need to have a disaster of a season to be fired. Even if Nebraska doesn’t go to a bowl game again, the fanbase will be restless and upset, but with the turnover lately, Matt Rhule still offers a bright future based on what he has done in the past. Plus, they will most likely be starting a true freshman quarterback this year, so if the season starts poorly, they can always show promise at the end of the year that might not satisfy fans but make the future seem brighter.

8. Mike Locksley, Maryland—Since 2019, Mike Locksley has had his Terrapins not have a worse record year to year in his four full seasons. In fact, before Locksley’s 8-win season in 2022, Maryland hadn’t had an eight or more-win season since 2010 under Ralph Friedgen in the ACC. Maryland has quietly been one of the most improved programs since 2021, and it did it in the Big Ten East. Since 2021, Mike Locksley has been a significant trap game for Ohio State and Michigan. In 2023 and 2022, Maryland lost both games to Michigan by one score and was tied or leading vs Ohio State. The only problem? Since 2020, Mike Locksley has had Taulia Tagovailoa as his starting QB. That’s obviously not been a problem, but it could raise some eyebrows if his teams underperforms in a big way this year. I doubt Mike Locksley will improve to 9 wins, but I also doubt he will have a disastrous season without Tagovailoa. If he can meet somewhere in the middle and make a bowl as he has done in his past three seasons, he will be doing just fine.

COULD FIND THEMSELVES ON THE HOT SEAT NEXT YEAR

7. Ryan Walters, Purdue—Let’s add some context to what Ryan Walters has done at Purdue so far. Yes, he went 4-8 last year, but they also played one of the toughest schedules in college football last year, and the offensive line was in a constant rotation with how many guys were getting injured. What Walters has done is he has gone into the portal and pulled out some key pieces to his defense and the wide receiver room, and developed one of the best freshmen in the nation last year in Dillon Thieneman. Walters does need to improve this year, but he won’t get fired if he goes 4-8 again. However, it will cause questions in the fanbase, and he will be under even more pressure to succeed if we don’t see growth this year.

6. Bret Bielema, Illinois—Just two years ago, Illinois was playing for a Big Ten West title and nearly upset the Michigan Wolverines. Unfortunately, last year wasn’t the same. Illini fans were high on their team going into the year, only to be disappointed with a 5-7 record, miss a bowl, and finish last in the Big Ten West. Illini fans still have hope, so it’s not like he is going anywhere after this year, but if the team does finish with the same record as last year or worse, Bret’s seat will undoubtedly begin to get hot, and he will be coaching for his job in 2025.

5. DeShaun Foster, UCLA—It’s not too often you find a brand new coach in the top 5 of the conference, but here we are. DeShaun Foster took over for Chip Kelly very late, and you get the feeling that he wasn’t UCLA’s first choice. I don’t think he is going anywhere after one season, but you get the feeling that if things don’t go well, they might just let him go in the middle of next year so they can have ample time to find their choice. Also, this could be a rough year for UCLA. They play a very tough schedule, even going on the road to the group of 5 schools in Hawaii in their first game. I’m not saying they lose to Hawaii, but what if they do? Their next four games after Hawaii are home against Indiana, at LSU, home against Oregon, and at Penn State. It’s not likely, but if UCLA starts 1-4, or dare I say, 0-5, the seat will start getting hot for DeShaun Foster.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin—At one point, Luke Fickell was regarded as one of the best coaches in College Football. His magical season at Cincinnati turned heads and earned him a job at one of the most consistent programs in the past 20 years. Well, Wisconsin has now gone 7-6 in back-to-back years. The last time they were 7-6 was 2008 when they followed that up with a 10-3 season. But Fickell was doing okay last year until he lost to Indiana and Northwestern in back-to-back weeks. Fans in Madison understand and recognize how close the LSU game was. They also realize last year was filled with unfortunate injuries, but Luke Fickell needs to win some big games this year with a tougher schedule to show the fans his playoff season at Cincinnati wasn’t a fluke and he can get them to where they want to be. Only seven wins this year will plant him securely on the hot seat in 2025.

FEELING THE PRESSURE

3. James Franklin, Penn State—James Franklin is not on the hot seat, but no Nittany Lion fan can deny there isn’t pressure. Since James Franklin took over in 2014, the Nittany Lions have been 13-25 (34.2%) against ranked opponents. That ranks in the bottom half of the new Big Ten as only 10th best. In addition, he is only 1-9 vs Ohio State, 3-7 vs Michigan, and 5-5 vs Michigan State. Plus, with only 1 Big Ten title, Penn State fans expect more. But Franklin has won 10+ games in five of his nine full seasons at Penn State. All in all, he can’t afford another year like 2021 and go 7-6. Franklin might be told to move on depending on how that year goes and what coaches are available. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Franklin has Penn State looking to contend for another Big Ten title and a possible playoff spot.

2. Lincoln Riley, USC—This one might ruffle some feathers, but hear me out. Lincoln Riley has coached three Heisman winners and has zero playoff victories to show for it. His first year at USC was the worst AP poll finish of his career at the time, which makes sense because of the roster he inherited, but he followed it up by not being ranked to end the 2023 season for the first time in his head coaching career. Riley is feeling pressure to achieve success like he did in Oklahoma. The only problem is that this isn’t the Big 12. He isn’t going to get away with a lousy defense and outscore every opponent. Plus, the contenders in this conference are not down. This isn’t the Big 12 where Texas was down, and he was contending with TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Iowa State. He is contending with juggernauts who recruit nationally in Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State. He almost got it done in the Pac-12, but he didn’t, and this year, the conference is more challenging, and the schedule is brutal. We may see Lincoln Riley lose five games again this year. And if that happens, I expect the seat will be hot.

1. Ryan Day, Ohio State—How often is the conference’s number one coach and also the coach who is under the most pressure? Not often! I wouldn’t go as far as to say Day is on the hot seat, but if he loses to Michigan again, I expect that seat to be very warm. Call that a hot seat if you want, but it’s clear that Ohio State fans are expecting more this year. As an Ohio State fan, I would expect Ryan Day to be fired if he loses to Oregon, Michigan, and the first game of the playoffs or doesn’t even make it at all. That’s what Ohio State fans expect. The three goals at Ohio State are to beat Michigan, win the conference, and win a national championship. He will stay even if Ryan Day can beat Michigan or win the conference. The fans won’t like it, but the administration will keep him. However, Ryan Day has not accomplished any of those in his past three seasons, so it will not be good if we see it a fourth season in a row. There has always been something missing. There has always been something wrong. Ryan Day can try to correct it every season, but if he doesn’t fix it this year, Ohio State will most likely correct it for him.