The 129th edition of the South’s Oldest Rivalry will emanate from Charlottesville, Va Saturday as the University of North Carolina Tarheels (3-4) travel to visit The University of Virginia (4-3) for a noon kickoff. UVa comes in as a 3.5 point favorite and the over / under total is sitting at 59.5 points. UNC comes in reeling off 4 straight losses, most recently to Georgia Tech two Saturdays ago. UVa enters this game on their first losing streak of the season as well, following a home loss to Louisville (24-20) and a road loss last week at Clemson (48-31). Which team will end their losing streak will likely come down to a handful of plays in the 4th quarter, as this game is expected to be a back and forth, high scoring affair. Will Virginia fans show back up to Scotts Stadium? Can the Hoos defend their home turf? Is this Mac Brown’s last time coaching against UVa? There will be plenty of storylines that come out of this game surrounding both squads.
THE ONE: UNC’s best player is probably running back Omarion Hampton. The 6’0” 220lb. Junior has already ran for 901 yards this season on 5.8 yards / carry. Most NFL Draft Experts point to him as a top three ranked RB in the upcoming draft. Hampton’s combination of speed and power will be on display all day, as he will be featured in the run game, as well as the passing game. Remember how Louisville RB Isaac Brown gashed the Hoos for 146 yards on 20 carries? If UVa is to win this game, they will have to at least slow down Hampton enough that he doesn’t single handedly win this game for the Heels.
THE TWO: Both teams come in with plenty of motivation. UNC tragically lost football player Tylee Craft to a rare form of lung cancer on October 12th. One UNC player each game will be rewarded with wearing Craft’s #13 jersey. Playing for a fallen teammate is something UVa players understand all too well. Additionally, last season, UNC was #10 in the country, undefeated (6-0) and welcomed in UVa for game that Vegas Sportsbooks had UNC as a 23.5 point favorite. On that day, UVa defeated the Drake Maye led Tarheels 31-27. From that point, the season somewhat spiraled downhill, with UNC finishing with an 8-5 record and a Duke’s Mayo Bowl blowout 30-10 loss to West Virginia. Conversely, a win Saturday for UNC could propel this team to a strong finish in 2024, as the remaining schedule is filled with games that UNC either should or could win. Will the UVa game once again mark the turning point of the season, or just more of the same.
For UVa, the motivation is simple, a win Saturday would give the Hoos four opportunities to get the 6th win that is necessary for bowl eligibility. Many outside the program believe a win Saturday would virtually guarantee at least another year for Head Coach Tony Elliott as he attempts to return the program to sustained success. Saturday is also just one more opportunity for Virginia to do something it has struggled mightily to do, defend their home turf. After Saturday, Virginia only has one more home game on their schedule (SMU 11/23). With road games against undefeated Pitt and one loss Notre Dame on deck, a loss Saturday could spiral into a season ending seven game losing streak. This program has a lot good things happening with the opening of the football facility, Coach Elliott’s best recruiting class to date, and a strong start to this season, but a long losing streak to end the season could put a bad taste in the mouths of fans, students, and donors alike. If the worst case comes true, there would likely be significant changes to the program, even if Coach Elliott remains.
THE THREE: As good as UNC can be on offense, they have still managed to lose four consecutive games due to a defense that gave up 53 first half points to James Madison. You read that right, the UNC defense allowed 53 points in the first half to JMU before ultimately losing 70-50. When things go bad, they go really bad. Against GT, after fighting to tie the score by making a FG with 46 seconds left, the defense allowed Jamal Haynes to rip off a 68 yard TD run with 16 seconds remaining. There have been some stretches of less than terrible play. Duke only scored 21, and Minnesota only 17, so it’s not all terrible all the time. UVa’s Anthony Colandrea should be able to find Malachi Fields and Tyler Neville routinely, and this feels like a spot for Chris Tyree to finally announce his arrival with a big performance. I’d also expect Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown to find plenty of room on the ground. The question for the offense will be can it execute in the red zone. The answer to that question needs to be a resounding yes for UVa to win.
DING, DING, DING: With both teams seeing this as a must win game, you’re going to get A+ effort from both sides, with plenty of emotion to boot. Considering these teams already don’t like each other, I’d expect lots of pushing, shoving and big hits. UNC coming off the bye week, should have the advantage of an extra week of prep and a chance to be healthy, while Virginia could still be licking it’s wounds from a physical, emotional loss at Clemson. This Virginia team has fought hard all year. With a better than average crowd cheering on, give me the Hoos to win 38-37.