Eric Boggs 
Illinois is undefeated after three games this season.
Nebraska and Illinois are set to clash in a pivotal Big Ten showdown on Friday night, one of the marquee matchups in Week 4 of the 2024 college football season. Both teams are undefeated and ranked, with No. 24 Illinois traveling to face No. 22 Nebraska in a game that promises to have major implications in the conference.
Nebraska’s Momentum
Nebraska enters this game with a 3-0 record, a significant improvement under head coach Matt Rhule. After a 5-7 season in 2023, the Cornhuskers appear to be on the rise, aiming for their first winning season since 2016. Wins over UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa have showcased their dominance, particularly on defense. Nebraska has allowed just two touchdowns through three games, surrendering only 6.7 points per game—eighth-best in the nation.
A key reason for Nebraska’s resurgence is freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who has already passed for 670 yards and five touchdowns, completing 73.8% of his throws. With weapons like Oregon transfer Dante Dowdell in the backfield and Isaiah Neyor leading the receiving corps, Raiola has a strong supporting cast. The offensive line has provided solid protection, while the defense has thrived with nine sacks and five takeaways.
Illinois’ Improvement
Illinois, too, is off to its best start since 2011. After a disappointing 5-7 campaign last year, the Fighting Illini have bounced back with a 3-0 record, including an upset win over then-ranked Kansas. Head coach Bret Bielema’s squad has shown improvements on both sides of the ball. Their offense, which averaged 24.5 points per game last season, is now up to 32.7 points per game, thanks to a more comfortable Luke Altmyer at quarterback. The Ole Miss transfer has thrown for 647 yards and six touchdowns with a completion rate of 69.2%.
Illinois’ defense has also stepped up, allowing just 4.6 yards per play—down from 5.3 last year—and ranking second in the Big Ten with nine takeaways. Their ground game, led by Kaden Feagin, has been solid, and the offensive line has improved significantly, a crucial factor against Nebraska’s formidable defensive front.
Key Matchup
The Cornhuskers hold a 14-6-1 edge in the all-time series and won 20-7 in Champaign last year. However, Illinois has won the last two matchups in Lincoln, and this year’s game could be closer than the stats suggest. Nebraska’s defense will be tested by Illinois’ balanced offense, while the Illini will look to challenge the Cornhuskers’ secondary with wideouts Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin.
What to Expect
Both teams are trending upward, but Nebraska’s home-field advantage and superior defense could be the difference. The Cornhuskers are favored by 7.5 points, and analytical models give them a 69-71% chance of winning. The SP+ prediction model projects a 24-16 victory for Nebraska, with the Cornhuskers expected to cover the spread.
With both defenses playing at a high level, expect a low-scoring affair, with the over/under set at 42.5 points. Nebraska has the edge, but Illinois will make them earn it.
Prediction: Nebraska 24, Illinois 17.
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