Jay Ballard 
Notre Dame football
Virginia travels to South Bend this Saturday to face #8 Notre Dame (8-1), marking the fifth all-time meeting between the two teams, and the second at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame is a 23 point favorite and the Over / Under is sitting at 50.5 points. The Fighting Irish have dominated the series, winning all four previous encounters, including a 28-3 victory in Charlottesville in 2021. Notre Dame enters the game ranked #8 in the latest AP Poll, and off a dominant 52-3 win against Florida State.
The Cavaliers also come into this contest on a high, having upset Pittsburgh 24-19 last Saturday in a thrilling road win. UVA’s win snapped a three-game losing streak and propelled them to a 5-4 overall record (3-3 in ACC play), putting them one victory away from becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021. With the momentum from the Pitt win, UVA now faces a daunting challenge against a Notre Dame team that has rebounded impressively after an early season loss to Northern Illinois. Let’s dive into the 1,2,3, Ding Ding Ding.
THE ONE: Notre Dame has been a defensive juggernaut this season, allowing just 11.1 points per game (second in the nation). Despite some key injuries, the Irish defense has maintained its elite status, smothering opposing offenses. Notre Dame’s defense ranks near the top in several key categories: 1st in completion percentage allowed (47.8%), 2nd in pass defense efficiency, 2nd in pass defense (148.6 YPG), and 3rd in scoring defense. Anthony Colandrea, will face his toughest challenge of the season in this one. Colandrea, who has thrown 17 interceptions in 2023 and 2024, will need to be cautious, as the Irish defense excels at forcing turnovers, ranking 7th in the nation with 20 takeaways. Can Colandrea find some success against the Notre Dame secondary? Can a mostly healthy offensive line give him time to even have a chance? If the answer is no, scoring is going to be extremely difficult for the Hoos.
THE TWO: Quarterback Riley Leonard, no stranger to UVa fans from his days at Duke, has been a key part of Notre Dame’s turnaround after the Northern Illinois debacle. While Leonard struggled early in the season, he has settled in during the team’s seven-game winning streak, improving his passing accuracy and complementing his elite running ability. Leonard, who has rushed for 609 yards and 13 touchdowns this season will present a huge challenge for Virginia.
Virginia’s defense, led by linebacker Jonas Sanker (the ACC’s Defensive Back of the Week three times this season) is coming off arguably its best performance of the season at Pitt. While Pitt and Notre Dame have some similarities in how they run their offenses, Notre Dame’s athletes across the board are superior to what UVa was able to slow down last week. In order to stay in this game, UVa will likely need to force some timely turnovers and make Notre Dame kick a few field goals in the red zone.
THE THREE: Virginia has shown resilience on the road this season, going 3-1 in away games, their best road record since 2011. The Cavaliers are also 2-3 all-time against ranked opponents under head coach Tony Elliott, with both wins coming on the road. UVA’s victory over Pitt last week was particularly impressive, as the Cavaliers overcame a halftime deficit, scoring 14 unanswered points in the third quarter.
That being said, for one Cavalier, this may feel like a home game. Chris Tyree will return to Notre Dame after transferring to UVa in the offseason. Off his best game as a Hoo, but not having the season many expected, there could be no better time than Saturday for Tyree to break out. I’d look for O-Coordinator Des Kitchens to have a few trick plays up his sleeve Saturday, as UVa will most likely need some chunk plays if they are going to have success on offense. Tyree could be a key cog for any trickeration the Hoos dial up.
DING DING DING: This game is huge for Virginia, as a win would make the Cavaliers bowl-eligible for the first time under Elliott and give them a chance to really put a signature win on his rebuild of the program. For Notre Dame, this game is a chance to continue their quest for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Irish have been nearly perfect since their loss to Northern Illinois, outscoring opponents 308-71 over their past seven games.
If Notre Dame comes in focused and ready to play, this will be a mismatch. UVa simply doesn’t have the athletes that Notre Dame does across the field. With a playoff spot within reach, it’s hard to imagine that Coach Freeman would allow that to happen. The recipe for a UVa win would be forcing several turnovers, hitting a few big plays, and being able to run the ball to shorten the game. While there is a recipe, I think the Hoos lack the ingredients to pull it off. They’ll show up and play hard, but winning at Notre Dame is simply too tall of a task.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Notre Dame 38 Virginia 17
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